In 2006, the overall pass rate was 67%, and 78% for those taking the exam for the first time. In 2015, those numbers fell to 59% and 70%, respectively, according to a report from the National Conference of Bar Examiners.
Vermont is down from a 68% passage rate in 2006 to 50% in 2015, which represents the lowest pass rate for any state in 2015. North Carolina is down from 64% to 53%, the second lowest state rate in the nation. Even Utah, which was tops in 2015 with a 76% overall pass rate, is down from the 83% in 2006 that passed.
James Mullen, founder of Barexamstats.com, said the legal industry has been undergoing a transformation since the market downturn in 2008. “I think what people need to keep in mind is that it isn't just the bar results that are declining, it is also the industry as a whole,” he says, noting there are multiple factors in play. “Clients are less likely to want a recent graduate working cases, so firms have been less likely to hire first year associates. That, when combined with how tuition costs have risen, makes being a high-salaried lawyer less of a sure thing.”
As a result of this, schools are seeing less applicants each year, Mullen says. ”Because of decline in the applicant pool, law schools are taking in students that had lower LSAT and GPA results. These students now are translating into lower bar exam results and we are seeing the effects of this change.”
According to information the Law School Transparency (LST) website, the low passage rate is a systemic problem that hurts lawyers and those who need legal services and an open discussion can help shed light on the issue. “Achieving a higher education should not hurt students—economically, socially, or personally. But our legal education system has hurt many,” according to the site. “Countless well-meaning people defend the status quo reflexively, choosing to focus on theories of long-term return on investment or the [Juris Doctor’s] intrinsic value to justify the current state of legal education … Publicizing the expense, debt, job outcomes, moral hazard, rent seeking, deception, regulatory capture, price discrimination, protections that enable systemic failure, etc. has led to better consumer information, downward price pressure, and more accountability.”
According to information from LST, there are three basic principles that should guide law schools:
- Don’t overproduce graduates
- Don’t raise prices “because people will eagerly pay”
- Provide a good education that will enable students to pass the bar
Mullen says there are a number of efforts to improve the pass rates being floated by some states that include changing to a more uniform exam that might make preparation easier. Some states are considering lowering the requirements needed to pass the exam, as well.
Repeated attempts to contact several top law schools for comment were unsuccessful as of press time.